Dutch Book Theorem Explained: Profit from Misjudged Probabilities

Discover how the Dutch Book Theorem reveals profit opportunities in betting and finance when probabilities are misjudged.

Dollar set for second straight weekly gain after US jobs data

The dollar gained on Friday after data showed slower than expected U.S. jobs growth, suggesting the Federal Reserve could ...

Dow Jones signs deal with Polymarket to add prediction data across outlets

News Corp's Dow Jones said on Wednesday it had signed an exclusive deal with Polymarket to bring real-time prediction market ...

3 Things To Consider In December 2025's Jobs Report

December 2025 nonfarm payroll growth is expected to show resilience, contradicting the Challenger and ADP reports. Read what ...
IEEE

Predictive Probability Density Mapping for Search and Rescue Using an Agent-Based Approach With Sparse Data

Abstract: Predicting the location where a lost person could be found is crucial for search and rescue operations with limited resources. To improve the precision and efficiency of these predictions, ...
thorax.bmj

Development and validation of PRECISE-X model: predicting first severe exacerbation in COPD

Objectives In patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), severe exacerbations (ECOPDs) impose significant morbidity and mortality. Current guidelines emphasise using ECOPD history to ...
IEEE

A Maritime Multitarget Tracking Method With Non-Gaussian Measurement Noises Based on Joint Probabilistic Data Association

Abstract: Multitarget tracking (MTT) plays an important role in maritime missions. However, the typical non-Gaussian noise is introduced into ship sensor measurements due to the complex sea ...
Investopedia

Understanding Prior Probability in Bayesian Statistics

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...