The yield curve is not easily understood, but it is important in giving us a good look at what is happening in the economy. Not surprisingly, Austrian ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted, meaning short-term interest rates on treasury bonds were unusually higher than long term rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. A key ...

Inverted yield curves happen when bonds with shorter maturity periods have higher yields than bonds with longer maturity periods. Under normal circumstances, it’s the other way around. Since ...

Monday - Friday, 1:00 - 2:00 PM ET Markets are no doubt cheering the selection of macro investor Scott Bessent as Trump's new Treasury Secretary. Stocks are popping globally, and even more ...

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators. I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the ...

Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes slid below those on two-year notes on Wednesday, delivering a reliable recession signal and sending shudders through global financial markets. Other sections of ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted, a ...

Treasury yields were unchanged at 2 years and were up 2 basis points at 10 years over the last week. As a result, the current 2-year/10-year Treasury spread widened to positive 20 basis points ...